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UNFPA

UNFPA is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled. UNFPA’s strategic plan (2022-2025) reaffirms the relevance of the current strategic direction of UNFPA and focuses on three transformative results: To end preventable maternal deaths. End unmet need for family planning. End gender-based violence and harmful practices. UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance.

Senior Demographer Consultant

ConsultantConsultantContractRemoteSeniorTeam 1,001-5,000

Location

Afghanistan

Posted

4 days ago

Salary

0

Seniority

Senior

No structured requirement data.

Job Description

Senior Demographer Consultant

UNFPA

Role Description UNFPA is seeking Demographers to implement the Cohort Component Method (CCM) used to project the Afghanistan population. The Demographers will ensure that the population estimates and projections, and relevant demographic indicators are reliable, consistent, accurate, and statistically meaningful across geographic levels and resident populations’ sex and age groups. You would be responsible for: - Compile, clean, and harmonize fragmented various surveys, administrative, and system datasets. - Compile and triangulate migration data from UNHCR, IOM, and administrative sources to inform national-level migration scenario assumptions. - Conduct advanced modelling of age-specific fertility rates, mortality rates, and national migration assumptions. - Derive subnational demographic differentials from available survey and auxiliary data to calibrate provincial prorating shares. - Generate national, provincial, and district level projections using the Cohort Component Method and pro-rating techniques. - Apply the Cohort Component Method to generate annual national population estimates and projections by age and sex. - Derive provincial and district population estimates and projections through structured prorating of national CCM totals. - Perform age-sex accuracy assessments (joint score index) and diagnostics for age heaping. - Ensure consistency of the population data estimates across all geographic levels and administrative boundaries. - Conduct sensitivity analysis and internal demographic validations. - Build and validate various growth scenarios for population projections. - Produce technical reports, population pyramids, and metadata documentation. - Finalize the technical documentation and dissemination outputs. Qualifications - At least a master's degree in demography, statistics, economics, population studies, public health, or social sciences. - Minimum 3 years proven track record in demographic analysis, population estimation and projection, population modeling, census or survey data analysis, statistics, and handling fragmented survey data or related fields. - Experience with household surveys data analysis of household facilities, health and population themes. Requirements - Proficiency in Stata, R, PAS, Spectrum and required demographic analysis software packages. - Demonstrated proficiency in demographic analysis and population projection methodologies, particularly the Cohort Component Method (CCM). - Strong knowledge of fertility, mortality, migration, and population estimation techniques. - Experience in data cleaning, harmonization, triangulation, and management of large-scale survey and administrative datasets. - Ability to conduct demographic diagnostics, including age-sex accuracy assessment, age-heaping analysis, and consistency checks. - Deep understanding and familiarity with UN demographic methodologies, international statistical standards. Desirable Qualifications - Experience with population, demographic, socio-economic, and official statistics data. - Experience in household survey monitoring, quality check, and data analysis. - Experience working with National Statistical Offices (NSOs), statistical agencies, UN agencies, international organizations, development partners or other institutions involved in the production, analysis, and dissemination of statistics. - Experience in developing population estimates, demographic indicators, life tables, or population projections at national and sub-national levels. - Publications, technical reports, or research work related to demography, population studies, or statistics will be considered an advantage. Language Requirements - Excellent command of written and spoken English. - Dari and Pashto are necessary as working languages in Afghanistan. Deliverables The consultant is responsible for the 11-month work plan, including: - 1 - 31 Aug 2026 (16 working days): Inception report and methodology finalization. - 1 - 30 Sep 2026 (16 working days): Data inventory and quality assessment. - 1 - 31 Oct 2026 (16 working days): Data cleaning and harmonization. - 1 - 30 Nov 2026 (16 working days): Fertility and mortality estimation and construction of life tables. - 1 - 31 Dec 2026 (16 working days): Migration assumptions modelling. - 1 - 31 Jan 2027 (16 working days): Initial national projections. - 1 - 28 Feb 2027 (16 working days): Provincial and district level projections. - 1 - 31 Mar 2027 (16 working days): Scenario development and validation. - 1 - 31 Apr 2027 (16 working days): Produce tables, charts, and visual outputs. - 1 - 31 May 2027 (16 working days): Metadata, technical report and documentations. - 1 - 30 June 2027 (16 working days): Final report and dissemination outputs.

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